is also the power of the test when the null hypothesis, H0, is true.
Another way your data can fool you is when you don't reject the null hypothesis, even though it's not true. If the true proportion of female chicks is 51%, the null hypothesis of a 50% proportion is not true, but you're unlikely to get a significant difference from the null hypothesis unless you have a huge sample size. Failing to reject the null hypothesis, even though it's not true, is a "false negative" or "Type II error." This is why we never say that our data shows the null hypothesis to be true; all we can say is that we haven't rejected the null hypothesis.
By definition, power = 1 - when the null hypothesis is false.
One of the main goals of statistical hypothesis testing is to estimate the P value, which is the probability of obtaining the observed results, or something more extreme, if the null hypothesis were true. If the observed results are unlikely under the null hypothesis, your reject the null hypothesis. Alternatives to this "frequentist" approach to statistics include Bayesian statistics and estimation of effect sizes and confidence intervals.
If your P value is less than the chosen significance level then you reject the null hypothesis i.e. accept that your sample gives reasonable evidence to support the alternative hypothesis. It does NOT imply a "meaningful" or "important" difference; that is for you to decide when considering the real-world relevance of your result.
the null hypothesis is probably wrong b.
In many statistical tests, you’ll want to either reject or support the . For elementary statistics students, the term can be a tricky term to grasp, partly because the name “null hypothesis” doesn’t make it clear about what the null hypothesis actually is!
the result would be unexpected if the null hypothesis were true c.
So, you might get a p-value such as 0.03 (i.e., p = .03). This means that there is a 3% chance of finding a difference as large as (or larger than) the one in your study given that the null hypothesis is true. However, you want to know whether this is "statistically significant". Typically, if there was a 5% or less chance (5 times in 100 or less) that the difference in the mean exam performance between the two teaching methods (or whatever statistic you are using) is as different as observed given the null hypothesis is true, you would reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. Alternately, if the chance was greater than 5% (5 times in 100 or more), you would fail to reject the null hypothesis and would not accept the alternative hypothesis. As such, in this example where p = .03, we would reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis. We reject it because at a significance level of 0.03 (i.e., less than a 5% chance), the result we obtained could happen too frequently for us to be confident that it was the two teaching methods that had an effect on exam performance.
the null hypothesis is probably true d.
The null hypothesis can be thought of as a nullifiable hypothesis. That means you can nullify it, or reject it. What happens if you reject the null hypothesis? It gets replaced with the which is what you think might actually be true about a situation. For example, let’s say you think that a certain drug might be responsible for a spate of recent heart attacks. The drug company thinks the drug is safe. The null hypothesis is always the accepted hypothesis; in this example, the drug is on the market, people are using it, and it’s generally accepted to be safe. Therefore, the null hypothesis is that the drug is safe. The alternate hypothesis — the one you want to replace the null hypothesis, is that the drug isn’t safe. Rejecting the null hypothesis in this case means that you will have to prove that the drug is not safe.
One can never prove the truth of a statistical (null) hypothesis.
When considering whether we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis, we need to consider the direction of the alternative hypothesis statement. For example, the alternative hypothesis that was stated earlier is: